Ransomware in Q1 2026: Market Consolidation and Emerging Threats

Introduction: A Quarter of Stability Amid High Activity

During the first quarter of 2026, the ransomware landscape recorded 2,122 victims posted on data leak sites (DLS). While this represents a 12.2% decline from the all-time record of 2,416 in Q4 2025, it remains the second-highest Q1 on record and a staggering 117% above Q1 2024 (977 victims). Monthly volumes were remarkably stable—732 in January, 684 in February, and 706 in March—averaging 707 victims per month. This sustained high baseline indicates that ransomware operations have reached a new normal, with activity leveling off at historically elevated levels.

Ransomware in Q1 2026: Market Consolidation and Emerging Threats — Source: research.checkpoint.com

Key Trends Shaping Q1 2026

Consolidation After Fragmentation

The most significant structural change in Q1 2026 is the reversal of a two-year fragmentation trend. The top 10 ransomware groups now account for 71.1% of all victims posted on DLS—the highest concentration since Q1 2024 and a sharp increase from the 57% share in Q3 2025. This consolidation comes as the number of active groups dropped from 85 in Q3 2025 to 71 in Q1 2026. Fourteen groups that operated in Q4 2025 disappeared entirely, while 21 new names emerged, underscoring a dynamic but concentrating ecosystem.

Qilin Maintains Dominance

For the third consecutive quarter, Qilin led the pack with 338 victims posted. Their sustained prominence highlights operational maturity and effective infrastructure. Despite the overall consolidation, Qilin’s grip on the top spot shows no signs of weakening.

The Gentlemen: A Breakout Story

The Gentlemen emerged as the quarter’s biggest surprise, jumping from 40 victims in Q4 2025 to 166 in Q1 2026—a 315% increase. This rapid ascent placed them third globally, signaling a new and aggressive player in the threat landscape.

LockBit 5.0 Comeback

After a period of uncertainty, LockBit confirmed a strong return with version 5.0, posting 163 victims and climbing to fourth place. Their resurgence demonstrates the group’s resilience and capacity to rebuild after law enforcement disruptions.

Year-over-Year Comparison: Adjusting for Anomalies

A headline comparison shows a 7.1% decline from Q1 2025 (2,285 victims). However, this is misleading because Q1 2025 was inflated by Cl0p’s massive Cleo exploitation campaign, which added roughly 390 victims in a single burst. Excluding Cl0p from both periods reveals an actual year-over-year increase of 5.3%—from 1,894 victims in Q1 2025 to 1,995 in Q1 2026. This adjustment confirms that underlying growth persists, even as dramatic spikes subside.

From Fragmentation to Consolidation

The ecosystem experienced a decisive shift in Q1 2026. After two years of fragmentation—where active groups grew from 51 in Q1 2024 to a peak of 85 in Q3 2025, and the top-10 share fell from 68% to 57%—the trend has reversed. Now, a smaller number of dominant operators control a larger portion of attacks. This consolidation often leads to more sophisticated tactics and increased pressure on smaller groups to join or disband. The emergence of 21 new groups suggests the landscape remains fluid, but the power dynamics are clearly tilting toward the top players.

Outlook: Persistent Threat with New Dynamics

Q1 2026 confirms that ransomware remains a persistent and evolving threat. Volumes are stabilizing at historically high levels, while the operator landscape is consolidating around a few major groups like Qilin, The Gentlemen, and LockBit. Organizations must adapt to this reality—focusing on robust detection, rapid response, and proactive defenses against both established and emerging ransomware families. The quarter also highlights the importance of attribution: Cl0p’s inflated numbers in 2025 show how single campaigns can distort statistics. As the ecosystem continues to mature, security teams should monitor consolidation trends to anticipate future threats.

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